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Manifold/Experiments
Manifold · A/B tests

Experiments

Some work can only be judged on live outcomes: a plan has to run in sim, a label has to match a human. Those get a traffic split. The post-review flow grades every arm, and the winner is promoted to the route when the result clears 95% confidence.

Running
3
42.8K challenger calls/day
Concluded · 30 days
2
1 promoted · +$1.90K/mo saved
Auto-stop
−3 pts
any arm this far below control is cut
Promote at
95%
confidence, and the guardrails still hold
runninglabel-pipestarted Sep 6

Labeling: Sonnet 5 vs DeepSeek V4 Pro (Vast)

Graded on agreement with human gold set
Day 6 of 1091% conf.
ArmSplitScorevs. controlp50$/1K callsDaily score
Claude Sonnet 5
Control
50%94.2%—1,180ms$8.80
vastDeepSeek V4 Pro (Vast)
Challenger
50%92.4%98.1%920ms$1.21−86%

Read so far: Challenger is 98.1% of control at a fraction of the cost. Needs 4 more days to clear 95% confidence.

runningsim-plannerstarted Sep 3

Sim planner: 3-way model bake-off

Graded on sim task success
Day 9 of 1472% conf.
ArmSplitScorevs. controlp50$/1K callsDaily score
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Control
80%87.4%—3,900ms$44.20
Claude Sonnet 5
Arm B
10%88.9%101.7%3,400ms$40.00−10%
Kimi K3
Arm C
10%84.1%96.2%4,300ms$53.06+20%

Read so far: Sonnet 5 is ahead on success rate and latency at similar cost. Kimi K3 is cheaper but trails by 3 points.

runningci-reviewerstarted Sep 8

Code review: Jev thresholds v2 (0.38 → 0.45)

Graded on accepted-comment rate
Day 4 of 758% conf.
ArmSplitScorevs. controlp50$/1K callsDaily score
Jev v1 thresholds
Control · 0.38 / 0.74
50%61.1%—2,600ms$42.00
Jev v2 thresholds
Challenger · 0.45 / 0.74
50%60.4%98.9%2,200ms$36.12−14%

Read so far: Too early. v2 sends 9% more traffic to the low-cost tier; acceptance is flat so far.

Recently concluded
concludedsupport-botstarted Aug 14

Support triage: re-qualify Qwen3.8 27B vs Gemma 3 12B

Graded on label agreement vs. sonnet 5
Day 10 of 1097% conf.
ArmSplitScorevs. controlp50$/1K callsDaily score
Qwen3.8 27B
Incumbent route
50%98.7%—610ms$0.31
Gemma 3 12B
Challenger
50%95.8%97.1%380ms$0.10−67%

Outcome: Kept Qwen3.8 27B. Gemma is 68% cheaper but missed the 97% parity bar on urgency labels. It gets retested when the next Gemma ships.

concludedops-copilotstarted Aug 23

Fleet copilot: Jev retrain v1.3 vs v1.2

Graded on task resolved without escalation
Day 7 of 796% conf.
ArmSplitScorevs. controlp50$/1K callsDaily score
Jev v1.2
Control
50%81.2%—2,900ms$29.16
Jev v1.3winner
Challenger
50%81.6%100.5%2,600ms$27.00−7%

Outcome: Promoted 12 days ago. The retrained scorer sends 7% fewer calls to Opus with no drop in resolution rate.

History

Every test in the last 30 days

Routes are re-qualified whenever a cheaper model ships. Keeping the incumbent is a normal outcome.
EndedWorkloadTestOutcomeImpactNote
Aug 30Fleet ops copilotJev retrain v1.3 vs v1.2promoted−$1.90K/mo7% fewer calls to Opus
Aug 24Support ticket triageQwen3.8 27B vs Gemma 3 12Bkept incumbent—Gemma 95.8% parity, below bar
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